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Afghanistan has long been a modern backbone for international politics. There is no other country around which (more precisely, around which problems) such a developed system of global, regional, two-, three — and quadripartite dialogues are built. Dozens of intelligent people around the world are working on ways to resolve the «Afghan issue», and dissertations are being defended. Monographs on Afghan topics can be filled in several rooms of the library. Before the era of self-isolation, the fast and frequently used international conferences about Afghanistan were one of the drivers of the hotel, restaurant, catering, air travel industries, and everything related to the event business. For some international organizations specializing in security, the «Afghan problem» served as the main justification for their activities. At the same time, which is very important, Afghanistan with its problems brought out international unity. At the UN, resolutions on Afghanistan are adopted with unanimity that is rare these days. The countries, whose views on the world are diametrically opposed, coincide in their approaches to solving the Afghan issue.
Today, Afghanistan is again in the center of attention of the world community. On September 12th, inter-Afghan talks began in the capital of Qatar, Doha, the first in history confrontation between the Taliban and the government backed by Washington.
Both the «Afghan issue» and the new model of peace and security that the negotiators are trying to find have three levels: domestic, regional and global.
The global dimension of the peace process is key to understanding why negotiations between the government and the Taliban have begun. The world community is united in its desire to end the war in Afghanistan and has the necessary leverage to force the warring parties to sit down at the negotiating table.
Three quarters of the Afghan budget comes from an external aid. In November of this year, Geneva will host the third Conference on Afghanistan, which is a meeting of donor countries with the Afghan government. The former undertake a commitment to allocate a certain amount of money to support Afghanistan in the next four years, and the government in return undertakes to carry out certain reforms in the country. The experience of the two previous conferences showed that donor countries allocate money (although it happens that it’s a little less than Kabul would like), but the situation with reforms is much worse. Since the 2016 Brussels conference, donor countries have allocated $ 15.2 billion for the development of Afghanistan. The Afghan government has admitted that it has met 18 of its 63 commitments so far. However, in November in Geneva, it hopes to receive promises of at least $ 8 billion in aid a year.
Political support for the negotiation process is provided at the highest level. On September 16, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution to extend the Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) for a year. Security Council members welcomed the launch of the inter-Afghan talks and called on the parties to continue to take confidence-building measures.
The situation was described very accurately by the special representative of the President of Kazakhstan for Afghanistan Talgat Kaliev, who took part in the negotiations in the format of a video conference. «We hope that the peace process, based on the principles of 'Afghans themselves' and 'for Afghans' and supported by the international community, will end with an agreement between the Afghan government and the Taliban, which would meet the interests of the all Afghan people,» he said.
It should be noted that representatives of all interested states are participating in the inter-Afghan negotiations — some live and some via video link. But the main architect of the negotiation process is, of course, Washington.
The agreement to hold talks was part of an agreement signed by the Americans and the Taliban in February in Qatar. This agreement also provided for the withdrawal of American troops from the country (in July they had already left five bases, by November the number are expected to reduce to 4-5 thousand people), as well as the release of five thousand prisoners of the Taliban. Another condition was to make the negotiation process inclusive — it included not only members of the government, but also representatives of the opposition and public figures.
For Donald Trump, the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and Iraq is an important argument in the election campaign. The American president needs an image of a peacemaker, but economic factors also play an important role.
From Trump's point of view, the war in Afghanistan is not profitable for the Americans. The costs are too high. According to the US Department of Defense, total military spending in Afghanistan from October 2001 to September 2019 was $ 778 billion. From 2010 to 2012, when Barack Obama increased the group to more than a hundred thousand people, the cost of the war was $ 100 billion a year. Under Trump, the US military has gone from costly and pointlessly offensive operations to training Afghan forces. Costs dropped to about $ 40 billion a year. And they, according to Trump, can and should also be reduced.
In addition, the US Department of State, together with the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and other government agencies, spent $ 44 billion on reconstruction projects.
Nongovernmental experts from Brown University estimate that the cost of the war in Afghanistan will approach two trillion dollars, taking into account the funds spent on American bases in Pakistan, on the care of war veterans and various activities related to the war. In addition, since the start of the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, more than 2,300 troops have died and about 20,660 have been injured.
Americans are tired of the war. Afghans are no less exhausted. Since becoming president in 2014, Ashraf Ghani said more than 45,000 Afghan security forces have been killed. According to UN estimates, since 2009, when the civilian casualties in the country began to be kept, about 100,000 Afghan civilians have died to date.
The country's economy has been destroyed. According to the same Ashraf Ghani, 90 percent of the population lives below the poverty line of $ 2 a day. Therefore, the main goal of the government delegation is to achieve peace. As the head of the Supreme Council for National Reconciliation Abdullah Abdullah said at the opening of the talks, «today will be remembered as the day of the end of the war.»
In fact, many are skeptical about the very idea of negotiations with the Taliban in Kabul, primarily because they do not trust the Taliban. There are plenty of reasons for mistrust. It is enough that the Taliban, having received the required release of prisoners and the withdrawal of part of the American troops, did not renounce violence themselves. Both on the eve of the Doha meeting and during the talks in Afghanistan, clashes with militants continued, including near the Tajik border.
In general, Afghanistan is divided not into Taliban and anti-Taliban, but into Pashtuns (the largest ethnic group) and non-Pashtuns (Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras, etc.). Everyone has their own interests. Pashtuns, in turn, are divided into tribes, plus there are regional leaders and their interests. And there are virtually no national interests in Afghanistan. There are no common interests — there is no common position on the peace process. Therefore, even if the Doha talks are successful, not everyone in Afghanistan will consider the agreements binding.
Thus, the internal dimension of the «Afghan issue» is directly opposite to the global one and is a complex of cultural, historical, political, religious and other factors that determine the lack of unity.
In such a situation, its regional dimension may become decisive for the peace process. Increased interest in how and under what conditions the reconstruction of Afghanistan will take place is shown not only by the «great powers», but also by the bordering countries of Central Asia, primarily Uzbekistan.
Thus, on September 9th, at the first meeting of the subcommittee on politics within the framework of the Uzbekistan-USA-Afghanistan dialogue, Tashkent expressed its readiness to organize one of the subsequent rounds of inter-Afghan negotiations in Samarkand. At the end of August, Afghan Foreign Minister Hanif Atmar visited Tashkent. During the visit, an agreement was signed on the supply of electricity by Uzbekistan for a period of 10 years. Today, according to Tashkent's estimates, it accounts for 56.5% of Afghan electricity imports. Now, with the support of the Asian Development Bank, the construction of the Surkhan-Puli-Khumri power transmission line is underway, which will increase the supply of electricity from 2.6 to 6 billion kWh per year. The power line will connect Kabul to the unified energy system of Central Asia.
Tajikistan and Turkmenistan also maintain close ties with Afghanistan and the Tajiks and Turkmens living on its territory. They also supply electricity to Afghanistan, in addition, Ashgabat is promoting the megaproject of the TAPI gas pipeline (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India), Dushanbe is participating in the creation of the CASA-1000 power transmission line, which will connect Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan with Afghanistan and Pakistan.
As for Kazakhstan, our position was clearly stated by Kassym-Jomart Tokayev a year ago at the UN General Assembly session: «We hope that the peace process, led by the Afghans themselves, with the support of all key stakeholders will lead to a lasting peace and prosperity in this country. Kazakhstan will continue to support the Afghan people in the restoration of their state. »
During the chairmanship of the UN Security Council in 2018, we organized a trip of members of the Security Council to Kabul and their meetings with the leadership of Afghanistan, politicians and public organizations. As a result of these meetings, the Security Council held a discussion on the topic «Building a Regional Partnership in Afghanistan and Central Asia as a Model of Security and Development Interdependence.»
At the bilateral level, humanitarian assistance was constantly provided. The delivery of the last batch — 46 wagons of humanitarian cargo (flour, sunflower oil, condensed milk) took place literally on the eve of the start of negotiations in Doha. At the same time, Kazakhstan has no special political interests in Afghanistan. We are not affiliated with any ethnic group, tribe, clan or political party.
How long the talks in Doha will last is unknown. It is only clear that it will hardly be possible to bring the positions of the parties closer together — mutual distrust is too strong and there are deep differences in the vision of the country's future structure.
But one can be sure that Kabul and the Taliban will agree to hold new meetings, to create working groups for consultations — in a word, to form the infrastructure of the negotiation process, which can last for years.
This means that Kazakhstan should build a long-term strategy in the Afghan direction, based on our interests in the region. At the same time, all platforms should be involved — both meetings of the leaders of Central Asian countries and dialogues in the «Central Asia + 1» format.
It is important to expand the scope of cooperation, go beyond the export of wheat and the supply of humanitarian aid. Kazakhstan is a regional leader in space technologies, including space monitoring and satellite communications.
We have a successful experience of using these technologies in Kazakhstan, and it can be extended to Central Asia and Afghanistan. Earth remote sensing satellites can be used to control the implementation of infrastructure projects (pipelines, power lines, etc.), as well as to combat opium production. Communication satellites can provide television Internet satellite services. Kazakhstan could also organize training of Afghan engineers and specialists to work with geoservices.
Kazakhstan is a regional leader in the field of digitalization. We could launch the Central Asia Digital Initiative, a roadmap for cooperation, which includes the Smart Cities Network of Central Asia (including Afghanistan) project modeled on a similar project already underway by ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations).
Economizing Kazakhstani foreign policy should not be limited to attracting investment and promoting exports. Foreign policy should be total in nature. It is such projects aimed at the technological development of the region as a whole, and Afghanistan in particular, that should become a priority for the international community. They should receive money from donor countries, and the Asian Development Bank and other international financial institutions should be involved in their financing.
Nikolay Kuzmin, political scientist
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